Through further interviews with reporters, it is learned that there are not many plasticized producers in Zibo like Mr. Ma. In the past year, the plastics industry will have a weak picture in the off-season this year.
Han Jianzhi, a plastics analyst at Zhaojin Futures, said that due to the rigid demand for agricultural film, August-October is the traditional consumption season for plastics, but this year it is “difficult to peak†and downstream demand is very low. “Small traders get less goods from big traders. Big traders do not need to continue to pick up the goods from producers because they still have stocks, and the pressure on producers is high.â€
"Downstream demand is not good, and now plastic processing enterprises are producing according to orders." Han Jianzhi's colleague Wang Chengming added that due to the European debt crisis, external orders fell, which further affected the operating rate of many small factories. After October, plastics will gradually enter the off-season, which is no different from the already bleak demand.
Relevant data show that in 2011 China's PVC (6555, 15.00, 0.23%) capacity was 21.3 million tons, accounting for 41% of the world's total capacity, coupled with many new capacity plans, the 2012 annual production capacity will be even larger. At the end of 2011, the domestic apparent consumption was less than 14 million tons, and the domestic PVC industry was seriously overcapacity. "The entire industry chain is in the midst of exploring the cold of survival." An industry insider said.
Zhao Yuyan, an analyst at Zhongyu Information Plastics, said that at present, PVC manufacturers are actively looking for breakthroughs, and large enterprises are gradually rushing to the west to seize resources. "In this period, the production capacity will increase by 2 million to 3 million tons, and the production capacity will continue to be excessive."
Looking at the futures, the main plastic contract 1301 closed at 10,215 points yesterday, and in mid-September, the contract price reached a high of 11,120 points, and fell to 8.14% in just over a dozen trading days. Since the end of September, the PVC price has also gone out of the downward trend similar to plastics. Looking back on the past years, affected by the clear inventory of petrochemical enterprises and the return of funds at the end of the year, the plastics industry has been in a downward trend from November to December. This year, this market seems to be ahead of schedule.
"The plastics market performance in September and October this year is somewhat subtle." Zhao Xueyan said that the plastics industry began to destock in June this year, and the current inventory has dropped to a low point. "The sharp reduction in speculative demand makes it difficult for the market to rise and fall again. The oscillating downturn will be the mainstream of the plastics market in the fourth quarter." Zhao Xueyan believes that the cost factor will become the decisive factor for the market's downward trend in the fourth quarter.
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