In 2000, domestic polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) came out of a wave of steadily rising strong market, driven by both the international economic environment and the domestic economic situation. Looking at PVA's full-year price changes, it can be divided into two major phases—the slow rise in the first half and a sharp rise in the second half.
In the first half of the year, domestic PVA was basically in a stage of rising upwards. From January to March, the PVA market underperformed the low-key form at the end of last year. In particular, the market fell to the lowest price in the whole year in February, and the price dropped to 9,000 yuan (t price, the same below). This is because, to a large extent, it is influenced by holiday holidays. At this time, in the traditional low season of consumption, the operating rate of downstream manufacturers is low, the demand for PVA in the market is small, the number of active purchasers is small, and the appearance of the market is more. Although the domestic macroeconomic environment is getting better, although it is already clear, the actual effects have not yet been reflected, and no effective driving force has been formed for the market. At this time, the market is still moving, so the PVA price only stays at the bottom of the oscillation of 9200 to 10600 yuan. From April to June, the PVA market is gradually rising. As the domestic economic situation has gradually become clear, various national measures to promote the economy have been implemented one after another. The production of all walks of life in the country has entered the development channel, the demand has gradually increased, and prices have gradually increased. PVA prices fluctuated between 10,000 and 1,1500 yuan. However, the development of the market in this period is characterized by slow but steady growth, with an average increase of about 400 yuan per month. Market transactions are relatively calm, and both the supply and demand sides are very stable. The market is accumulating power for the sharp rise in the later period.
In the second half of the year, due to the acceleration of production development in the downstream industry, rising prices of products, and large imbalances in the market supply and demand structure of the products, the operation of the domestic PVA market has clearly increased. In July, the PVA price oscillation intensity increased violently, although the low price of the market remained basically at the level of June, at around 11,000 yuan, but the high level reached 12900 yuan, and the price difference was nearly 2,000 yuan. This shows that there is a big difference in market acceptance of PVA prices. In August, PVA prices continued to rise. At the same time, the price gap began to decrease, and the price level rose sharply. The price difference narrowed from 2000 yuan in July to around 1,000 yuan. This shows that as the market changes, the acceptance gap between supply and demand sides for product prices has narrowed. The price of PVA reached the peak of the whole year in September and remained until October. At this time, the market price was about 14,500 yuan. In some areas, the supply tension once rose to more than 15,500 yuan. At the end of the second month, the PVA market has weakened. Especially at the end of the year, due to the weakening of production and operation in the downstream industry, the prices of downstream products have dropped, sales have gradually slackened, and market demand has weakened. At the same time, the arrival of the end of the year has brought greater operating pressure to the manufacturers. . In order to reduce inventory and realize profit, some manufacturers competed with each other to promote sales and created a certain degree of self-defense in the market. At this stage, the market price dropped to 12,600 to 13,500 yuan.
Although the price of PVA increased significantly in 2000 (about 70% of the annual maximum increase), in 2001, domestic PVA market still has a good chance for development. It is expected that the domestic PVA market will continue to rise steadily on the basis of the increase in last year. The reason is as follows:
1. The PVA trend in the international market is better, and Asian PVA production is basically out of the trough. According to the report of Japan Chemical Weekly, 1998 was the most difficult year for PVA industry. At that time, the markets in Southeast Asia and Japan were very sluggish, and the sales volume of products dropped. In 1999, this situation began to change, market demand gradually recovered, and market conditions improved. At the same time, it was reported that global demand for PVA increased in general in 1999. North America increased by about 2.7%, Europe by 2.2%, and Asia by 6%. As manufacturers continue to reduce costs and improve product performance, this pick-up momentum has been further developed. From January to November 2000, China's PVA exports increased by 16% over 1999, and the price increased by 21% year-on-year. This shows that the international market affirms the PVA market and the effective growth of PVA demand.
2. The economic situation at home and abroad continues to develop steadily, providing a good environment for the development of the PVA industry. Although the rate of world economic growth may have declined in 2001, it remains cautiously optimistic. As the EU and Japan’s economy is in an accelerated recovery, it can, to a certain extent, compensate for the lack of economic demand brought about by the “soft landing†of the US economy. In the domestic market, although there are still some uncertain factors, such as grain production, crude oil prices need to be stabilized, but the country's active fiscal policy implemented over the past three years has gradually accumulated experience in the governance of deflation, this year prices will appear positive growth; This year, China will continue to strengthen its readiness to join the WTO and promote and promote the development of productive forces. The strategy for the development of the western region will enter the implementation stage and will further accelerate the economic growth in the west and drive the development of the domestic economy.
3. The accelerated development of the downstream industry has a positive effect on the PVA industry. As the national life reaches a well-to-do level, the demand for entertainment, housing, automobiles, and education will increase, and real estate will become one of the recognized economic hot spots this year. This will inevitably drive the further development of the building materials market and the building decoration industry, which will in turn stimulate the booming adhesive market and increase the consumption of PVA. It is expected that joining the WTO will be an absolute positive factor for the domestic textile industry. The increase in textile exports will effectively promote the rapid development of the textile industry and promote the development of high-quality, high-grade textiles, thereby increasing the consumption of PVA. At the same time, the reduction in grain production in 2000 will lead to an increase in the cost of grain starch used in textile pulp, and its application market will be reduced accordingly, which also provides certain favorable conditions for the increase of PVA's share in the use of textile pulp.
4. Good quality of its own determines the broad prospects of PVA development. PVA is a kind of high molecular polymer with water solubility. Its degradability makes it have good environmental performance. Because it meets the environmental protection requirements that people are increasingly concerned about, the performance of PVA has been highly evaluated in recent years. PVA is mainly used as vinylon fiber. In developed countries, its demand as an asbestos substitute has grown rapidly. The water-solubility of PVA is very beneficial to environmental protection. It can be used to develop various modified and high-performance products such as biodegradable membranes, and it can be combined with other substances to improve product quality.
In the first half of the year, domestic PVA was basically in a stage of rising upwards. From January to March, the PVA market underperformed the low-key form at the end of last year. In particular, the market fell to the lowest price in the whole year in February, and the price dropped to 9,000 yuan (t price, the same below). This is because, to a large extent, it is influenced by holiday holidays. At this time, in the traditional low season of consumption, the operating rate of downstream manufacturers is low, the demand for PVA in the market is small, the number of active purchasers is small, and the appearance of the market is more. Although the domestic macroeconomic environment is getting better, although it is already clear, the actual effects have not yet been reflected, and no effective driving force has been formed for the market. At this time, the market is still moving, so the PVA price only stays at the bottom of the oscillation of 9200 to 10600 yuan. From April to June, the PVA market is gradually rising. As the domestic economic situation has gradually become clear, various national measures to promote the economy have been implemented one after another. The production of all walks of life in the country has entered the development channel, the demand has gradually increased, and prices have gradually increased. PVA prices fluctuated between 10,000 and 1,1500 yuan. However, the development of the market in this period is characterized by slow but steady growth, with an average increase of about 400 yuan per month. Market transactions are relatively calm, and both the supply and demand sides are very stable. The market is accumulating power for the sharp rise in the later period.
In the second half of the year, due to the acceleration of production development in the downstream industry, rising prices of products, and large imbalances in the market supply and demand structure of the products, the operation of the domestic PVA market has clearly increased. In July, the PVA price oscillation intensity increased violently, although the low price of the market remained basically at the level of June, at around 11,000 yuan, but the high level reached 12900 yuan, and the price difference was nearly 2,000 yuan. This shows that there is a big difference in market acceptance of PVA prices. In August, PVA prices continued to rise. At the same time, the price gap began to decrease, and the price level rose sharply. The price difference narrowed from 2000 yuan in July to around 1,000 yuan. This shows that as the market changes, the acceptance gap between supply and demand sides for product prices has narrowed. The price of PVA reached the peak of the whole year in September and remained until October. At this time, the market price was about 14,500 yuan. In some areas, the supply tension once rose to more than 15,500 yuan. At the end of the second month, the PVA market has weakened. Especially at the end of the year, due to the weakening of production and operation in the downstream industry, the prices of downstream products have dropped, sales have gradually slackened, and market demand has weakened. At the same time, the arrival of the end of the year has brought greater operating pressure to the manufacturers. . In order to reduce inventory and realize profit, some manufacturers competed with each other to promote sales and created a certain degree of self-defense in the market. At this stage, the market price dropped to 12,600 to 13,500 yuan.
Although the price of PVA increased significantly in 2000 (about 70% of the annual maximum increase), in 2001, domestic PVA market still has a good chance for development. It is expected that the domestic PVA market will continue to rise steadily on the basis of the increase in last year. The reason is as follows:
1. The PVA trend in the international market is better, and Asian PVA production is basically out of the trough. According to the report of Japan Chemical Weekly, 1998 was the most difficult year for PVA industry. At that time, the markets in Southeast Asia and Japan were very sluggish, and the sales volume of products dropped. In 1999, this situation began to change, market demand gradually recovered, and market conditions improved. At the same time, it was reported that global demand for PVA increased in general in 1999. North America increased by about 2.7%, Europe by 2.2%, and Asia by 6%. As manufacturers continue to reduce costs and improve product performance, this pick-up momentum has been further developed. From January to November 2000, China's PVA exports increased by 16% over 1999, and the price increased by 21% year-on-year. This shows that the international market affirms the PVA market and the effective growth of PVA demand.
2. The economic situation at home and abroad continues to develop steadily, providing a good environment for the development of the PVA industry. Although the rate of world economic growth may have declined in 2001, it remains cautiously optimistic. As the EU and Japan’s economy is in an accelerated recovery, it can, to a certain extent, compensate for the lack of economic demand brought about by the “soft landing†of the US economy. In the domestic market, although there are still some uncertain factors, such as grain production, crude oil prices need to be stabilized, but the country's active fiscal policy implemented over the past three years has gradually accumulated experience in the governance of deflation, this year prices will appear positive growth; This year, China will continue to strengthen its readiness to join the WTO and promote and promote the development of productive forces. The strategy for the development of the western region will enter the implementation stage and will further accelerate the economic growth in the west and drive the development of the domestic economy.
3. The accelerated development of the downstream industry has a positive effect on the PVA industry. As the national life reaches a well-to-do level, the demand for entertainment, housing, automobiles, and education will increase, and real estate will become one of the recognized economic hot spots this year. This will inevitably drive the further development of the building materials market and the building decoration industry, which will in turn stimulate the booming adhesive market and increase the consumption of PVA. It is expected that joining the WTO will be an absolute positive factor for the domestic textile industry. The increase in textile exports will effectively promote the rapid development of the textile industry and promote the development of high-quality, high-grade textiles, thereby increasing the consumption of PVA. At the same time, the reduction in grain production in 2000 will lead to an increase in the cost of grain starch used in textile pulp, and its application market will be reduced accordingly, which also provides certain favorable conditions for the increase of PVA's share in the use of textile pulp.
4. Good quality of its own determines the broad prospects of PVA development. PVA is a kind of high molecular polymer with water solubility. Its degradability makes it have good environmental performance. Because it meets the environmental protection requirements that people are increasingly concerned about, the performance of PVA has been highly evaluated in recent years. PVA is mainly used as vinylon fiber. In developed countries, its demand as an asbestos substitute has grown rapidly. The water-solubility of PVA is very beneficial to environmental protection. It can be used to develop various modified and high-performance products such as biodegradable membranes, and it can be combined with other substances to improve product quality.
Ems Sculpting Machine,Ems Muscle Stimulator,EMS Machine
Xi'an Double H Health Technology Co., Ltd , https://www.xadoubleh.com