Source: Zhuo Chuang Information
In the whole year of 2014-2018, the kraft paper market showed a steady upward trend. Among them, the price in 2014-2016 was mainly stable, and the price in 2017-2018 was above.
In 2014-2016, the sales scope of various kraft paper mills in China was fixed, mainly to maintain old customers. During the period, the supply and demand of kraft paper market was relatively stable. In addition, the cost of upstream wood pulp and waste paper fluctuated little, so the price of kraft paper did not fluctuate greatly. / ton or so. In 2017, the overall price of kraft paper showed an upward trend, especially in the first half of the year. The main reason was that the price of upstream waste paper and wood pulp raw materials continued to rise. Under the pressure of paper mills, the paper mills raised the price of kraft paper collectively. The price increase in the fourth quarter reached 1000/ton. The highest point appeared at the end of the year at 7150/ton. In 2018, the kraft paper market continued its upward trend. However, due to the escalation of supply and demand conflicts (reduced demand), the price increase of kraft paper in 2018 was significantly weaker than that in the fourth quarter of 2017. The annual price increase was around 400/ton, and the 2018 kraft paper The highest price appeared before and after the Mid-Autumn Festival, the downstream food industry was in the peak season, the demand for kraft paper was good, and the wood pulp offer continued to rise in August, the price of kraft paper reached a new high, and the average price of 80-120g fine cattle reached 7833/ton. After the peak season, the actual transaction price of kraft paper prices in the fourth quarter of 2018 was loose.
Forecast of domestically produced fine cattle prices in 2019: The overall trend of kraft paper in 2019 may be weak and stable. First of all, it is understood that there will be new capacity of kraft paper in China in 2019. The demand performance in 2018 is not good. Under the increase of new capacity in 2019, the trend of kraft paper may be affected by certain negative effects. Secondly, the price trend of wood pulp in 2019 is lower than that in 2018. In summary, it is expected that the price of fine cattle will show a downward trend in 2019, with the highest point appearing in the first and second quarters and the lowest point appearing in the third quarter. Analysis of the first quarter supported by the Spring Festival demand can maintain the high price in 2018; the second and third quarter prices will be affected by the weakening of demand will decline, will reach the lowest point in the third quarter; the fourth quarter with a series of holiday demand, the price may have A slight rebound, but there is still a certain gap from the annual high.
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